Michigan State topples BC; captures NCAA championship

Chockey Betting Lines

04/08/2007 - St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Abdelkader's goal with 18.9 seconds left in regulation was the game-winner, as Michigan State claimed its third championship in school history with a 3-1 win over Boston College at Scottrade Center in St. Louis.

Tim Kennedy had a goal and an assist for the Spartans, who ended the season with five straight wins. Chris Mueller also tallied and Jeff Lerg stopped 28 shots.

"BC was coming to the net hard all game, but I knew if I made key saves, we'd have a chance, because we could not play their game," said Lerg. "In the end, we outplayed them."

Brian Boyle scored the lone goal for the Eagles, who saw their 13-game win streak snapped in cruel fashion. Cory Schneider stopped 26 shots in the loss, BC's second consecutive finals defeat.

Michigan State claimed the championship by scoring three times on a passive Boston College team in the third period.

Kennedy answered to tie the game for Michigan State on a power-play goal at 9:53, breaking away from two BC checkers and scoring low and inside the left post.

Then, with the clock ticking down towards overtime, Michigan State kept pressure on in the Eagles' defensive zone. Kennedy broke down the right side and clanged a shot off the right goalpost. He followed the puck behind the goal line and emerged from a scrum with the disc and fed in front to Abdelkader, who slipped the puck by Schneider for a 2-1 lead.

"It was an unbelievable play," Abdelkader said. "I saw the puck go behind the net, and wanted to find a spot in the slot. I got my stick on it, and it was fortunate that it went in."

Mueller added an empty-netter with 1.2 seconds to go and the bench erupted as the Spartans claimed their first title since 1986.

"We knew going into the game, they were a patient team,"said BC forward Joe Rooney. "They kept five guys low. We got our chances, but didn't get the bounces we needed. Got TO hand it to their goalie, he played well."

The Spartans, playing out of the CCHA, broke a streak of five consecutive champions from the WCHA stretching back to Boston College's win in 2001. The last school from the CCHA to win a title was Michigan, who took the crown in 1998 against Boston College.

Neither team scored in a spirited first period which saw BC outshoot Michigan State 13-6.

BC had a 5-on-3 advantage with five minutes played in the second, and capitalized while skating with one extra man as Nathan Gerbe won a battle along the boards and pushed the puck into the left circle. Brock Bradford stepped up and ripped a shot from the faceoff dot that hit Boyle's leg and sailed into the right corner of the net for a 1-0 lead at 6:50.

Michigan State went up by two men midway through the period, but BC held on without allowing a quality chance. Despite 12 shots in the second, the Spartans were still unable to solve Schneider.

That would set the stage for a stunning reversal in the final 20 minutes of the contest.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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