Spartans can claim share of Big Ten title with win over Wolverines

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter Big Ten Conference rivals close out the regular season against each other this afternoon in East Lansing, as the Michigan Wolverines come calling on the 11th-ranked Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan has been up and down all season long, coming in at 14-15 overall and 7-10 in conference. The Wolverines blasted Minnesota in their last outing, 83-55, putting the brakes on a three-game slide and giving the team some much- needed confidence heading into this rivalry game. UM is just 3-7 in true road games this year, which includes a 3-5 mark against conference foes.

Michigan State can claim a share of the Big Ten regular-season title with a win today, as the team comes in with an overall record of 23-7 and a league mark of 13-4. The Spartans have been virtually unbeatable at home, logging a 14-2 ledger, the only two setbacks coming against top-10 league rivals Purdue and Ohio State. MSU has won its last two games, the most recent being a 67-65 thriller over Penn State, and has claimed victory in four of its last five overall.

Michigan owns a 91-73 advantage in the all-time series with Michigan State, but the Spartans have won 17 of the last 20 meetings, including 10 straight in East Lansing. MSU slipped by UM in the first encounter this season, escaping Ann Arbor with a 57-56 victory.

Relying heavily on only players to lead the way, the Wolverines are far from an explosive offensive team. In fact, they rank 10th in the conference in scoring (65.0 ppg), and their meager .417 field goal percentage has them sitting ninth. Defensively, Michigan is yielding just 61.6 ppg to rank fourth in the league, and there are only two teams in the conference who defend the three-point shot (.315) better at the moment. Manny Harris ranks third in the Big Ten in both scoring (18.2 ppg) and steals (1.8 spg), and he sits fourth in assists (4.1 apg). He has made more free throws (134) than any of his teammates have attempted at this point. DeShawn Sims (17.1 ppg) is the club's only other double-digit scorer, and both players also work hard on the boards, coming up with a combined 13.8 rpg. Sims made the most of his final home game on Tuesday night, scoring 23 points and grabbing six rebounds to lead Michigan to its 28-point shellacking of Minnesota. Harris added 22 points and Stu Douglass chipped in with 10 for the Wolverines, who shot a sizzling 60.4 percent from the field and drained 8-of-19 three-pointers along the way. One of the more impressive stats from that game is that Michigan committed just four turnovers.

Simply put, Michigan State is a very good team that knows how to play at both ends of the floor. The Spartans, who boast four double-digit scorers at the moment, are averaging 73.1 ppg on 47.6 percent field goal accuracy, and they are giving up just 63.9 ppg on typical shooting efforts of 40.7 percent overall and 32.5 percent from three-point range. MSU leads the Big Ten in assists (17.1 apg). Rebounding has also been huge for coach Tom Izzo's club, which comes into this regular-season finale with a league-best +9.2 rebounding margin. MSU's most productive offensive performer happens to be the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year in junior guard Kalin Lucas, who is shooting 46 percent from the field and averaging 14.9 ppg. Lucas also serves as the team's primary playmaker with his 4.0 apg, and he converts nearly 80 percent of his free throws as well. Raymar Morgan (10.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Durrell Summers (10.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Draymond Green (10.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 3.1 apg) complement Lucas perfectly, and all are capable of carrying the team if its star is off his game. Lucas tallied just nine points in 28 minutes of action in the recent win over Penn State, as Morgan (16 points, eight rebounds) and Green (14 points, nine boards, four assists) took control. The Spartans watched as the Nittany Lions dropped nine three-pointers, but held strong in logging a 39-26 edge on the glass, a 36-20 advantage in points in the paint, and a staggering 26-1 margin in bench points.

Sporsillustrated NCAA Basketball Betting News

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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