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03/08/2010 - Hartford, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-ranked Connecticut won its NCAA-record 71st consecutive game Monday, a 59-44 victory over No.6 Notre Dame in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament.
It is the longest winning streak in NCAA Division I women's basketball history, as the Huskies (32-0) surpassed their own record set from 2001-03. The only longer winning streak in NCAA Division I basketball history is the 88-game run UCLA had from 1971-1974.
But while Monday's victory was historic, it also included a scary moment in the final minute. Connecticut guard Caroline Doty was hit in the back of the neck by a Notre Dame player trying to get to the ball, and fell to the floor. Doty lay there for several minutes as medical staff attended to her, but eventually sat up and walked off under her own power.
The Huskies ended up winning by double digits, which they have done for all 71 games during this streak. However, they led by only three at halftime and were held to a season-low in points.
Tina Charles ended with 16 points and 17 rebounds in the victory, while Kalana Greene had 15 points and seven rebounds for Connecticut, which will play either West Virginia or Rutgers in the final.
Maya Moore finished with 11 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in the win.
Skylar Diggins had 10 points to pace the Irish (27-5).
<< Cavs F Antawn Jamison leaves game
CLEVELAND (AP) -Cavaliers forward Antawn Jamison has left Cleveland's game against San Antonio in the third quarter with stiffness behind his left knee.The Cavaliers provided a vague update on Jamison, who was recently acquired in a trade with Washi
<< No. 5 Xavier escapes in OT to win A-10 title
Upper Marlboro, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Amber Harris scored a game-high 23
points to lead the fifth-ranked Xavier Musketeers over the Temple Owls, 57-55,
in overtime of the Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament final.
Special Jennings chip
<< Nuggets' Martin to receive therapy for ailing knee
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Nuggets forward Kenyon Martin will have
Platelet Rich Plasma therapy on his left knee, the team announced on Monday.
Martin sat out Denver's past two games, wins against Portland on Sunday and
Indian
<< Bruins' Savard has Grade 2 concussion
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Bruins forward Marc Savard has a Grade 2
concussion, general manager Peter Chiarelli announced Monday.
There is no timetable for Savard's return. He will be monitored by the Bruins
medical staff and tea
Grizzlies recall Thabeet after short stint in D-League >>
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Memphis Grizzlies recalled center Hasheem
Thabeet from the Dakota Wizards of the NBA Development League on Monday.
Thabeet, who was drafted second overall in 2009, became the highest-ever draft
pick to be
Cavs edge Spurs without LeBron >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mo Williams had 17 points, eight rebounds and
eight assists, as the Cleveland Cavaliers edged the San Antonio Spurs, 97-95,
in a matchup between shorthanded teams.
The Cavaliers rested LeBron James for a se
Old Dominion takes down William & Mary for CAA title >>
Richmond, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - James Darius scored 12 points and Kent
Bazemore added 10 points and five assists, as Old Dominion held on to claim
the Colonial Athletic Association tournament title with a 60-53 win over
William
Raiders release injury-prone Walker; Ellis let go as well >>
Alameda, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Raiders released wide receiver
Javon Walker on Monday, as well as veteran defensive end Greg Ellis.
Walker inked a six-year, $55-million contract with Oakland prior to the 2008
campaign but
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com refunds all bets on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay from NFL week one.
(September 14) – Week one of NFL action saw three teams go scoreless for the first time since 1977. Another four were unable to get a touchdown and almost half of the underdogs covered the spread. Those three teams saved bettors at MySportsbook.com from losing out completely, thanks to the company’s unique NFL Shutout Rule -- which ensures that if the team you backed goes scoreless, your wager is refunded.
Sportsbook refunded tens of thousands of dollars to customers who bet on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the three teams that stunk up the field so badly that their fans and backers never had a chance to get up from their couches and cheer. In the spirit of the low scoring start to the season, odds makers at the world’s largest online sportsbook and casino have set odds on how many total shutouts there will be this season.
MySportsbook.com has posted updated sports betting lines for week two of the season. Ben Roethlisberger’s health status is still questionable, so Willie Parker will try to lead Pittsburgh again as they travel to Jacksonville as a one point favorite. After beating up on his little brother last week, Peyton Manning will look to lead the Colts to victory against Houston. Indianapolis is a whopping 13.5 favorite in the match-up.
Seattle, last year’s highest scoring team, showed the power of their defense with their gritty 9-6 win in Motown over the ravenous Lions. They take their act back home to the comforts of Qwest Field where they will face the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are favored by a touchdown.
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